Trump tariffs

economics
R
Author

Mitsuo Shiota

Published

April 3, 2025

Code 
library(tidyverse)
library(readxl)

theme_set(theme_light())

Tariffs charged to the US, according to Trump’s assertion

25 area are listed.

Code 
tariffs_by_trump_assertion <- tribble(
  ~area, ~tariffs,
  "China", 0.67,
  "European Union", 0.39,
  "Vietnam", 0.90,
  "Taiwan", 0.64,
  "Japan", 0.46,
  "India", 0.52,
  "South Korea", 0.50,
  "Thailand", 0.72,
  "Switzerland", 0.61,
  "Indonesia", 0.64,
  "Malaysia", 0.47,
  "Cambodia", 0.97,
  "United Kingdom", 0.10,
  "South Africa", 0.60,
  "Brazil", 0.10,
  "Bangladesh", 0.74,
  "Singapore", 0.10,
  "Israel", 0.33,
  "Philippines", 0.34,
  "Chile", 0.10,
  "Australia", 0.10,
  "Pakistan", 0.58,
  "Turkey", 0.10,
  "Sri Lanka", 0.88,
  "Colombia", 0.10
)

Get goods trade data from Census bureau

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html

Code 
temp_file <- tempfile()
download.file("https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/country.xlsx", destfile = temp_file)

country <- read_excel(temp_file) |> 
  janitor::clean_names()

country_2024 <- country |> 
  filter(year == 2024) |> 
  select(code = cty_code, area = ctyname, import= iyr, export = eyr) |> 
  mutate(
    deficit = import - export,
    trade = export + import,
    deficit_ratio = deficit / trade,
    deficit_ratio2 = deficit / import
  ) |> 
  mutate(
    area = if_else(area == "Korea, South", "South Korea", area)
  )

country_2024_joined <- country_2024 |> 
  inner_join(tariffs_by_trump_assertion, by = "area")

Compare

Tariffs charged to the US which Trump estimates look very similar to the US deficits in goods per trade volume to each listed areas.

Code 
country_2024_joined |> 
  mutate(area = fct_reorder(area, deficit_ratio)) |> 
  ggplot(aes(y = area)) +
  geom_point(aes(x = tariffs), color = "red") +
  geom_point(aes(x = deficit_ratio), color = "pink") +
  scale_x_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format()) +
  labs(x = "Ratios", y = NULL,
       title = "Trump estimates tariffs charged to the US, probably\nbased on US trade deficits in goods per trade volume",
       subtitle = "Red points denote tariffs charged to the US which Trump estimates, and\npink points denote US trade deficits in goods per trade volume in 2024",
       caption = "Source: US Census Bureau")

Trump estimates look similar to US trade deficits in goods per trade volume

Using imports, instead of trade volume (export + import), as a denominator looks closer.

Code 
country_2024_joined |> 
  mutate(area = fct_reorder(area, deficit_ratio2)) |> 
  ggplot(aes(y = area)) +
  geom_point(aes(x = tariffs), color = "red") +
  geom_point(aes(x = deficit_ratio2), color = "pink") +
  scale_x_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format()) +
  labs(x = "Ratios", y = NULL,
       title = "Trump estimates tariffs charged to the US, probably\nbased on US trade deficits in goods imports",
       subtitle = "Red points denote tariffs charged to the US which Trump estimates, and\npink points denote US trade deficits in goods imports in 2024",
       caption = "Source: US Census Bureau")

Trump estimates look similar to US trade deficits in goods imports